Event Tree Analysis

Inductive system-analytical method to determine possible consequences of an occurring error in a system.

An event that can occur in a system and its potential impact on the overall system is examined. The effect of the initial event is then considered under normal operating conditions and assuming the follow-up component is faulty. The result of the analysis is then displayed graphically in a binary tree.

This event tree is usually drawn from right to left, each with branches for two alternatives. An upper branch for the successful behavior of the event and a lower branch for its failure. This makes it possible to go through different paths and to identify an accident sequence. Each branch is associated with a certain default error probability, which multiplied by the numerical value for each branch gives the probability of the entire path. The accident probability of the system is then obtained by combining all path probabilities of the paths leading to an accident.

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